Predicting surgical resource consumption and in-hospital mortality in resource-scarce conflict settings: a retrospective study

Abstract Background In armed conflicts, civilian health care struggles to cope. Being able predict what resources are needed is therefore vital. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) implemented in 1990s Wound Score (RCWS) for assessment penetrating injuries. It unknown extent RCWS or established trauma scores Kampala (KTS) and revised score (RTS) can be used surgical resource consumption in-hospital mortality resource-scarce conflict settings. Methods A retrospective study routinely collected data on weapon-injured adults admitted ICRC’s hospitals Peshawar, 2009–2012 Goma, 2012–2014. High was defined as ≥3 procedures ≥ 3 blood-transfusions amputation. relationship between RCWS, KTS, RTS consumption, evaluated with logistic regression adjusted area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). impact missing assessed imputation. Model fit compared Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Results total 1564 patients were included, these 834 had complete data. For high AUC significantly higher (0.76, 95% CI 0.74–0.78) than KTS (0.53, 0.50–0.56) (0.51, 0.48–0.54) all patients. Additionally, lower AIC, indicating a better model fit. (0.83, 0.79–0.88) (0.71, 0.65–0.76) (0.70, 0.63–0.76) patients, but not Conclusion appears RTS. may promising tool planning monitoring